Von der Leyen Holds Ground for Second Term: Uncertainties Remain

Von der Leyen remains in pole position but uncertainties abound

On Monday, June 17, the leaders’ dinner. The game could widen. Ursula von der Leyen remains in pole position for a second term leading the European Commission, but the game for the top jobs might still hold surprises.

Especially if it expands, as predictable, to the most important positions within the next European executive. Just hours before the informal dinner of the 27 heads of state and government called to discuss the nomination package, insiders outline a scenario characterized by highlights and shadows. On one hand, the more or less explicit support of many for Ursula’s reelection and for the nominations of former Portuguese socialist premier Antonio Costa for the position of President of the European Council, and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas for the role of High Representative of the EU. On the other, the requests that Giorgia Meloni intends to put forward to increase Italy’s influence in Brussels. And those that will be tabled by the Eastern countries, especially Poland, to have their role recognized. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz aim to conclude the deal as soon as possible and have expressed confidence in the possibility of this happening.

But at the moment, it cannot be ruled out that someone may throw a spanner in the works or that an agreement on the operation may not be reached before June 30, that is when elections take place in France. Indeed, rumors on the eve almost take for granted the re-election of von der Leyen and even that of Roberta Metsola, also popular, at the helm of the European Parliament for another two and a half years. When discussing Costa and Kallas, certainties diminish and it appears that some of the key players in the European scene have so far kept their cards close to their chest to be able to play them at the right time during the dinner tomorrow. The current focus is surely on the next President of the Commission and the allocation of roles within the future European executive.

Above all, it will be necessary to secure the so-called Ursula majority within the European Parliament (EP), as while the EPP, S&D, and Renew Europe can count on 406 seats against the 361 needed to greenlight the appointment, the phenomenon of “traitors” makes this margin of safety appear small. Therefore, efforts are being made to expand the coalition to secure at least part of the 52 Green MEPs. Perhaps even with the external support of the delegation of Brothers of Italy. This support could be more or less explicit if the request for a weighty Vice-Presidency within the Commission is accepted. It is precisely on the issue of Commission roles that the battle could intensify and delay decisions on the top jobs. According to a tradition that has always characterized European negotiations, nothing is decided until a decision is made on the entire package. It will not only be Italy asking for important portfolios. France is already known to be aiming for a significant role in the economic or industrial policy field.

Spain wants to place current Deputy Prime Minister Teresa Ribera in climate or energy transition. Latvia has decided to confirm Valdis Dombrovskis, currently the Commission Vice-President responsible for economic affairs and trade, who is unlikely to have a less important portfolio. And so on for others. The day will start with the pre-summit of the EPP at 14:00, which should be attended by the 13 EPP leaders currently in government in as many countries. A meeting from which important indications on the prospects of the nomination negotiations led by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (former President of the European Council) and his Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis could emerge.