Xi Jinping’s BRICS Absence Sparks Global Speculation Amid Economic and Political Turmoil

By Business Desk | July 2025

The 2025 BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro was expected to be a defining moment for the bloc’s evolving geopolitical influence. Yet, the conspicuous absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping has overshadowed the summit’s agenda, igniting a firestorm of speculation about the state of China’s leadership, its economy, and its role in the shifting global order.

Beijing’s official explanation—a scheduling conflict—has done little to quell rumors. Behind closed doors, diplomats and analysts are grappling with a more complex narrative: one that intertwines domestic unrest, economic contraction, and internal power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party.

A No-Show That Echoed Loudly

Xi’s decision to skip the two-day summit, attended by leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa, was met with surprise and concern. The summit’s agenda included coordinated responses to Western tariffs, condemnation of recent military actions in the Middle East, and discussions on expanding BRICS’ economic footprint.

In Xi’s absence, Chinese representation was limited to lower-level officials, a move that many interpreted as a signal of internal instability. Theories abound—from health concerns to political infighting—but the broader implication is clear: China’s leadership may be entering a period of unprecedented volatility.

Rumors of a Stroke and Political Paralysis

Whispers of Xi suffering a stroke have circulated in diplomatic circles for months. While unconfirmed, the rumors gained traction after reports emerged of abrupt cancellations and unusual absences from public events. Some analysts suggest that even if Xi is physically capable, he may be politically constrained.

“There are two plausible explanations,” said one senior fellow at a global policy institute. “Either Xi felt he couldn’t leave the country due to domestic turbulence, or his adversaries within the party prevented him from doing so.”

China’s opaque political system offers few clues. However, the sudden disappearance of several high-ranking military officials—reportedly loyal to Xi—has fueled speculation that a power struggle is underway.

Economic Headwinds and Public Discontent

Beyond the political intrigue, China’s economic challenges are mounting. The country is grappling with deflationary pressures, declining consumer confidence, and a manufacturing sector in retreat. For the past four months, consumer price data has shown persistent deflation, while the producer price index has remained in negative territory for over two years.

Labor unrest is also on the rise. Reports of strikes, unpaid wages, and shuttered factories have become increasingly common. These developments suggest that the Chinese economy is not growing at the 5.4% pace claimed by official statistics.

“China is facing its own version of the 2008 financial crisis,” one economist noted. “The debt-fueled growth model is unraveling, and the public is beginning to lose patience.”

Xi’s Waning Grip on Power

Perhaps most alarming for Beijing’s allies and adversaries alike is the suggestion that Xi may be losing control of the military. The top uniformed officer in China’s armed forces is reportedly a known adversary of Xi, and several of Xi’s military loyalists have been removed or have vanished from public view.

Among civilian leadership, the picture is murkier. But signs point to a broader erosion of Xi’s influence. If he were to be sidelined, some believe a more reform-minded leader—such as Premier Li Qiang—could emerge. While no one expects a dramatic liberalization, even a modest shift could alter China’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory.

Trump’s Tariff Threats and the BRICS Fallout

As the BRICS summit unfolded, former U.S. President Donald Trump took to his social media platform to issue a stark warning: any country aligning with BRICS’ “anti-American policies” would face an additional 10% tariff. The message was clear—Washington views the bloc’s growing cohesion as a threat to its economic dominance.

Trump’s comments were widely interpreted as a response to BRICS’ condemnation of recent U.S. actions in the Middle East and its push for a multipolar trade system. The threat of new tariffs adds another layer of complexity to an already fragile global trade environment.

TikTok, Trade, and National Security

Meanwhile, the ongoing saga surrounding TikTok has reemerged as a flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Trump recently claimed that a deal to sell the platform to American buyers is nearly complete, pending approval from Beijing. He hinted that the buyer is a consortium of wealthy individuals, though details remain scarce.

The former president emphasized that the only acceptable outcome is a complete severance of TikTok’s ties to China. He accused the platform of being a tool for data theft and psychological manipulation, citing concerns over its algorithm promoting harmful content.

“This is a matter of national security,” Trump declared. “China doesn’t allow our apps. Why should we allow theirs?”

The TikTok Deal: A Proxy for Broader Tensions

The TikTok negotiations are emblematic of the broader decoupling between the U.S. and China. What began as a tech dispute has evolved into a geopolitical chess match, with both sides leveraging trade, technology, and diplomacy to assert dominance.

Some analysts believe the TikTok deal is being used as a bargaining chip in larger trade negotiations. Others argue that the platform’s fate is a litmus test for how far the U.S. is willing to go in confronting China’s digital influence.

A Dangerous Game of Distraction?

There is growing concern that Xi, facing mounting pressure at home, may seek to distract from domestic woes by escalating tensions abroad. Historically, authoritarian leaders have turned to nationalism and external conflict to consolidate power during periods of internal crisis.

“Xi has every incentive to disrupt the international system,” one expert warned. “If he believes his grip on power is slipping, he may try to rally the nation by creating external enemies.”

This possibility has alarmed policymakers in Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo. The fear is not just of military conflict, but of economic sabotage, cyberattacks, and diplomatic brinkmanship.

The BRICS Bloc at a Crossroads

The BRICS alliance, once seen as a counterweight to Western institutions, is now grappling with internal contradictions. While its members share a desire to challenge U.S. hegemony, their interests often diverge. China’s absence from the summit has only deepened questions about the bloc’s cohesion and future direction.

For Brazil, India, Russia, and South Africa, the challenge is to maintain momentum without their most powerful member fully engaged. Whether BRICS can evolve into a true economic and political force—or remain a symbolic alliance—remains to be seen.

Looking Ahead: Uncertainty Reigns

As the dust settles from the BRICS summit, the global business community is left with more questions than answers. Will Xi Jinping reassert control, or is China on the cusp of a leadership transition? Can the Chinese economy stabilize, or is a deeper crisis looming? And how will the U.S. respond to the growing assertiveness of BRICS and the unresolved TikTok saga?

One thing is certain: the intersection of politics, economics, and technology is becoming increasingly volatile. For investors, policymakers, and citizens alike, navigating this new landscape will require vigilance, adaptability, and a keen understanding of the forces reshaping the world.