Explore the upcoming presidential elections in Chad where the legacy of General Mahamat Deby Itno is at stake as citizens prepare to vote for the country's next leader. With various contenders vying for power and a backdrop of escalating tensions, Chad faces a critical juncture in its political landscape.

Ciad, Presidential Elections Tomorrow General Mahamat Proposes to Perpetuate the Deby Dynasty

Chad's citizens will be called to vote on Monday, May 6, to elect the next President of the Republic. In total, ten candidates are running for the highest office in the country, facing a delicate transition phase after the long-serving president, Idriss Deby Itno, was killed in battle by rebels in April 2021. Since then, Chad has been governed by a military junta led by Deby's son, Mahamat Deby Itno, who is one of the candidates running. His main adversary will be current Prime Minister Succès Masra, the presidential candidate of Chad's "Justice and Equality" coalition. Masra, the president of the Transformers party, recently returned to the country after over a year in exile for opposing the military leaders who came to power in April 2021 after the death of Idriss Deby Itno. According to several observers, Masra's candidacy could introduce another element of political uncertainty, given the aspirations of the current military leader and transition head, Mahamat Deby Itno.

The latter, who officially announced his candidacy in March, is the head of the coalition of parties "For the Kingdom of Chad," which unites 221 movements. General Mahamat's appointment, at 37, contradicts the resolutions adopted by the African Union, which prohibit the candidacy of any transition leader for leadership positions, and the same promises made by the military junta leader when he came to power three years ago when he promised to complete an 18-month transition period by September 2022 - later extended by two years - and that no member of the junta would run for leadership once democratic elections were established. Following the submission of applications from March 6–15, the Constitutional Council received a total of 20 applications but retained only ten, deeming the others "inadmissible" and "non-compliant" due to alleged irregularities in the administrative process required documents. Among the candidates rejected were the two main opposition figures, Nassour Ibrahim Neguy Koursami and Rakhis Ahmat Saleh, officially excluded for non-compliant administrative documents. The first is also subject to a preliminary investigation for criminal prosecution due to suspicions about the authenticity of the supporting documents in his application file.

Among the admitted candidates, the name of Lydie Beassemda stands out. A multiple-time minister, the current president of the Democratic Party of Chad (PDI) is the only woman among the ten selected candidates. Beassemda finished third in the 2021 presidential elections, behind the incumbent president Deby and former Prime Minister Pahimi Padacké Albert. The latter, candidate of the National Rally of Chadian Democrats (Rndt-Le Reveil), is the other main candidate in Monday's presidential elections. Chad's presidential elections take place with a majority vote in two rounds. The President of the Republic is elected for a five-year term, renewable once. In the first round, the candidate who obtains an absolute majority of the votes cast is elected. Otherwise, in the second following Sunday, a runoff is held between the top two candidates in the first round, and the one receiving the most votes is declared the winner. Ange will have up to fifteen days after the elections to announce provisional results.

The elections in Chad are unfolding in a context of great uncertainty and instability in a country facing a severe crisis resulting from the rise in fuel prices, which, combined with the presence of refugees in the country, prompted the government to declare a food and nutritional emergency. At the same time, demonstrations planned by civil society organizations to protest against this challenging situation are regularly banned and suppressed by the regime. In this scenario, Mahamat Idriss Deby will have to go through these elections to legitimize his power in case of victory. Moreover, since the transition's conclusion is scheduled for October 10, 2024, holding the elections is imperative as the country could risk falling into a legal vacuum, synonymous with predictable chaos after that date. According to the National Agency for Electoral Management (ANGE), over 8 million voters – out of Chad's 17.72 million population – are registered to elect the next President of the Republic. The Constitutional Council will then proclaim the final results after verifying the regularity of the voting operations, based on the provisional results submitted to it by the Independent National Electoral Commission (Ceni).

The vote on May 6, as mentioned, will take place in an extremely delicate context for Chad. In fact, just over two months ago, the country fell victim to violence that resulted in dozens of deaths and injuries, including the killing of the leader of the Party Without Borders Socialist (PSF), Yaya Dillo, and the arrest of the opponent. Saleh Deby Itno, Mahamat's uncle. The violence erupted on the night of February 26–27, after PSF supporters – led by Dillo – attacked the National Security Agency (ANSE, the intelligence agency) headquarters, causing "several deaths," according to the Communications Minister in a statement. On the evening of Tuesday, February 27, the military junta accused Dillo and his followers of instigating an alleged assassination attempt on the President of the Supreme Court, Samir Adam Annour, accusations that the opposition leader denied, qualifying the attack as "orchestrated." A crackdown by Chad's security forces on the PSF headquarters led to the death of its leader, Yaya Dillo, believed to be the mastermind of the revolts that erupted in the capital N'Djamena. Following the events, the governing junta ordered the demolition of the party's headquarters.

All the while, Chad, like its neighbors Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso (all governed by the military juntas that came to power after as many coups in the last four years), is gradually moving closer to Russia's orbit. The latest step, in this regard, was symbolized by the beginning of the withdrawal of American troops stationed in the country. According to CNN's report this week from Pentagon spokesperson Major Pete Nguyen, more than half of the approximately 100 stationed personnel at a French military base in the capital N'Djamena have actually left the country and relocated to Germany, where the operational group for special operations was formerly headquartered before moving to Chad in 2021. The U.S. military withdrawal – albeit "temporary" as part of a security cooperation review that the Pentagon says will resume after the presidential elections on May 6 – represents a significant blow to President Joe Biden's administration, which was already forced to accept the Niger authorities' request to withdraw over 1,100 personnel from Niger. For years, the United States has relied on Chad as a trusted security partner. Chad's presidential guard is, in fact, one of the most well-prepared and equipped in the Sahel. The country has also hosted military exercises led by the U.S. and is an important partner in the effort involving several countries in the Lake Chad Basin to combat the Nigerian jihadist group Boko Haram.